Middle-Market Lending Outlook: Q2 2026 — Friday Open: The Energy Premium Settles Into a Lower Band and the Curve Holds the Bulk of Its Relief — WTI Steadies at $92.91 and Brent at $95.01 After Last Week's Sell-Off, Keeping the Geopolitical Bid Out of the Tape and the 10-Year Roughly 19 bps Inside Its Mid-May 4.667% 16-Month High at 4.473% (+0.45% / +2 bps) With the 5-Year at 4.181% (+0.34% / +1 bp); Equities Trade Firm and Breadth-Led — Dow Jones 51,561.93 (+1.73% / +874.86) Leads, S&P 500 7,584.31 (+0.41% / +30.63) Follows, and the NASDAQ Composite Lags at 26,830.96 (-0.09% / -23.02), a Rotation Tape Rather Than a Mega-Cap Melt-Up; Inflation Stays Sticky on Still-Elevated Energy but the Stabilized Crude Band Keeps the Year-End Cut Path Live — CME FedWatch Prices the June 16-17 Meeting Near 70% Hold With Roughly 60–65% Odds of One 25 bp Cut by Year-End, Most Likely September or October; Warsh Chairs His Inaugural FOMC and First SEP in Roughly 7 Trading Sessions; Fed Funds Holds 3.50%–3.75%, SOFR Anchored ~3.62%, Prime 6.75%; April 2026 SLOOS Confirms Only Modest Net Tightening Across All C&I Sizes With the Large/Middle-Market Subset Showing Stronger Demand Than Small Firms; Q1 2026 Bank C&I Balances Ran at Their Strongest Sequential Pace in Over Two Years; Regional Bank Term Pricing for Qualified Credits Clears at SOFR+200–250 (5.62%–6.12% All-In) Against Direct Lending First-Lien at SOFR+550–600 (9.12%–9.62% All-In); Q2 BDC Redemption Pressure Stays Elevated With Apollo, Ares and BCRED All Forecast Above the 5% Quarterly Threshold; the Relief Is in Hand but Geopolitically Contingent and Sits in Front of the New Chair's First Dot Plot, So the Window to Lock Economics Is Open Now and Finite

Forward-Looking Statements. Rate quotes, market data, and lender appetite summaries reflect conditions and professional judgment as of the date published. These statements are subject to change without notice and are not guarantees of future market conditions, financing availability, or transaction outcomes. Past market conditions are not indicative of future results. This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

The Rate Environment — The Energy Premium Settles Into a Lower Band and the Belly Holds Its Relief: Crude Steadies After Last Week's Sell-Off, WTI at $92.91 and Brent at $95.01, Keeping the Geopolitical Bid Out of the Long End — the 10-Year at 4.473% (+0.45% / +2 bps) and the 5-Year at 4.181% (+0.34% / +1 bp) Sit Roughly 19 bps Inside the Mid-May 4.667% 16-Month High, Holding the Bulk of the Quarter's Curve Relief; Inflation Stays Sticky but the Stabilized Crude Band Keeps the Year-End Cut Path Live — FedWatch Near 70% Hold for June 16-17 With Roughly 60–65% Odds of One 25 bp Cut by Year-End; Warsh Chairs His First FOMC and SEP in Roughly 7 Sessions; Fed Funds Holds 3.50%–3.75%, SOFR ~3.62%, Prime 6.75%

As of this morning's session, the energy premium that drove the Treasury curve for most of the quarter has settled into a lower band rather than reasserting itself. WTI front-month is steady at $92.91 and Brent at $95.01, consolidating well below the $95–$97 spike highs of mid-quarter after last week's sharp sell-off pulled the geopolitical bid out of the tape on signs of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation and softer demand-side data. With crude holding in the low $90s rather than rebuilding the premium, the long end is keeping the bulk of the relief it gained: the 10-year is at 4.473% (+0.45% / +2 basis points on the session) and the 5-year at 4.181% (+0.34% / +1 basis point), both ticking modestly higher this morning but still sitting roughly 19 basis points inside the 4.667% 16-month high posted in mid-May. That is the durable read borrowers have been waiting for — not the one-session lurch of a crude spike or collapse, but a curve that has held most of its relief across several sessions as the energy impulse stabilizes. The inflation backdrop has not softened — energy costs remain elevated year over year and the core trend sits above the Fed's 2% objective — but with the forward crude path no longer climbing, the rates market has stopped pricing fresh term premium into the long end. Equities traded firm and breadth-led: the Dow Jones Industrial Average led at 51,561.93 (+1.73% / +874.86), the S&P 500 followed at 7,584.31 (+0.41% / +30.63), and the NASDAQ Composite lagged slightly at 26,830.96 (-0.09% / -23.02) — a rotation tape favoring cyclicals and value over mega-cap growth, consistent with a market pricing steadier growth and a stable-to-easing rate path rather than a defensive bid.

The chairmanship transition is now two weeks old. Kevin Warsh was sworn in at the White House on May 22 — the first Fed chair swearing-in held there since Alan Greenspan in 1987 — following the May 13 54-45 Senate vote, the narrowest confirmation margin for any Fed chair in the modern era; outgoing Chair Jerome Powell remains on the Board of Governors through January 2028. Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16-17, 2026 — now roughly 7 trading sessions out — when the next Summary of Economic Projections accompanies the rate decision. The federal funds target range holds at 3.50%–3.75% after the April 28-29 meeting, overnight SOFR remains anchored at approximately 3.62%, one-month Term SOFR sits near 4.14%, and the prime rate stands at 6.75%. CME FedWatch prices the June meeting at approximately 70% hold; with crude stabilizing rather than spiking, the back half of the curve has kept the year-end cut path alive, pricing roughly 60–65% odds of a single 25-basis-point cut by December, most likely at the September or October meeting. For middle-market C&I borrowers, the practical read is that the cleanest curve relief of the quarter is now in hand and has proven durable across multiple sessions: the 5-year — the tenor that anchors most term-loan and swap economics — sits roughly 19 basis points below its mid-May high and has held there as the energy premium settled. The qualifier is unchanged: this relief remains geopolitically contingent, and a fresh Strait headline can rebuild the premium inside a session, exactly as the tape demonstrated in both directions over the past three weeks. It also sits in front of Warsh's first SEP, where a hawkish dot plot could reprice the long end higher regardless of where the funds rate prints. The correct posture is to treat the current configuration as the open, finite window it is — durable relief in hand, but in front of an event that can close it — and to lock term-sheet economics in the roughly 7 sessions before the June 16-17 meeting rather than waiting for a confirmation the next headline may erase.

Regional Banks — The Relationship-Bank Channel Stays Wide Open Into the ~7-Session Pre-FOMC Window, and the Stabilized Crude Band Near $93 Holds the Energy-Cost Diligence Overlay Steady Rather Than Tightening It; Q1 2026 Earnings Confirm System-Wide C&I Balances at Their Strongest Sequential Pace in Over Two Years; Associated Banc-Corp C&I $12.3B (+4.6% QoQ / +12.9% YoY) Targeting 17–19% FY Loan Growth, Flagstar C&I +9% QoQ Broad-Based, PNC Tracking 12–13% Loan Growth With CRE Returning Across Its $328B Portfolio, KeyCorp Q1 EPS $0.44 (+33% YoY), Citizens Targeting ~30% 2026 Earnings Growth, Regions With Half of C&I Growth From Higher Line Utilization, First Business Loan Growth Annualizing 15% at a ~8.5% C&I Yield; April 2026 SLOOS Shows Only Modest Net Tightening With the Large/Middle-Market Subset Stronger; Pricing Discipline Holds at SOFR+200–250 (5.62%–6.12% All-In) for Qualified Credits, a 350–400 bp All-In Edge Over Direct Lending

The Q1 2026 earnings cycle for the major regional franchises is complete and the deployment posture remains unambiguous as the roughly 7-session pre-FOMC origination window stays open. KeyCorp reported Q1 net income of $486 million ($0.44 per diluted share, +33% YoY) on revenue of $1.95 billion (+10.2% YoY), with commercial loan growth running roughly 7% annualized. PNC Financial Services Group is tracking full-year loan growth in the 12%–13% range and called out the long-awaited return of commercial real estate activity off multi-year declines, anticipating moderate growth across its $328 billion portfolio in 2026. Citizens Financial Group is publicly targeting roughly 30% earnings growth for 2026 and reported a 4.2% QoQ increase in average C&I balances. Associated Banc-Corp posted period-end C&I loans of $12.3 billion (+4.6% QoQ / +12.9% YoY) and lifted full-year loan-growth guidance to 17%–19% — one of the most aggressive deployment targets in the regional group. Flagstar Bank flagged Q1 C&I loan growth of $1.4 billion (+9% QoQ), broad-based across industry verticals rather than concentrated in a handful of sponsor names. Regions Financial reported broad-based C&I origination driven by power and utilities, manufacturing, healthcare, and asset-based lending — with roughly half of the growth coming from higher line utilization, a leading indicator of operator capital deployment. First Business Financial Services reported loans up roughly 15% annualized, with C&I now representing the bulk of the quarter's loan expansion and the C&I yield reaching approximately 8.5%. System-wide bank C&I balances ran at their strongest sequential pace in over two years after eight near-flat quarters, and the April 2026 SLOOS reported only modest net tightening across all firm sizes, with the large/middle-market subset showing stronger demand than small firms — structurally mild against the roughly 30% net-tightening peak of 2024. The signal is a credit channel that conditions on documentation quality and relationship standing while competing aggressively on price for the credits it actively wants to win.

For domestically-oriented credits with leverage at or below 3.5x EBITDA and FCCR at or above 1.25x, term-loan pricing clears at SOFR+200–250 (5.62%–6.12% all-in). The all-in spread differential versus direct lending first-lien holds at 350–400 basis points — approximately $700,000–$800,000 annually on a $20 million facility — and remains in the borrower's favor as bank competition stays intense and direct lending markings sit at the wide end of the post-COVID range. What has improved this quarter is the energy-diligence calculus into the seven sessions before Warsh's June 16-17 FOMC: with WTI consolidating near $92.91 and Brent near $95.01, the geopolitical premium underwriters spent the spike stress-testing has drained out of the near-term frame, and the diligence overlay applied at the highs has eased to a steady setting rather than a tightening one. That said, the underwriting frame should still bracket two-way volatility rather than extrapolate the current band. For cost-exposed industries — food manufacturing, commercial distribution, transportation and logistics, import-dependent manufacturers — the stabilized low-$90s tape is margin-supportive, but credit committees will still want the $110–$115 Brent sensitivity case bracketed, because the same Strait dynamics that unwound the premium can rebuild it in a session. For upstream and midstream energy operators the band cuts the other way: crude holding below $95 keeps near-term marks and revenue under modest pressure, so submission packages from operators in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken need to demonstrate hedge-book and cost-curve resilience through an explicit $80–$85 WTI downside, not a one-way read of the prevailing tape. S&P Global Ratings' WTI/Brent price assumptions remain the operative input on both sides of the bracket.

The April 2026 SLOOS also flagged tighter standards across nondepository financial institution loan categories — business credit intermediaries, private equity funds, and consumer and mortgage credit intermediaries all reported tighter — a signal worth tracking because tightening at the NDFI funding layer compresses upstream private credit deployment capacity and further widens the relative attractiveness of relationship-bank execution. Industry coverage has explicitly framed the Q1 C&I surge as at least partially driven by borrowers rotating out of private credit as BDC redemption pressure mounts. An established primary banking relationship continues to compress underwriting timelines by 30–45 days versus new outreach, and that differential is widening as origination calendars approach committee capacity heading into the seven sessions before the June 16-17 FOMC. Committee-stage indications circulated now still land in front of underwriters working live calendars; the same package circulated post-FOMC will be repriced against Warsh's first SEP regardless of where the funds rate itself prints. The stabilized crude band does not change the relationship-bank deployment posture — origination calendars stay open and pricing discipline holds at SOFR+200–250 for the credits the channel actively wants to win — but it does strengthen the case for moving now: the energy-and-curve backdrop is the most borrower-friendly it has been all quarter, with roughly 19 basis points of belly relief in hand and the diligence overlay steady rather than tightening. That combination is unusual and, because it rests on a crude band that can break either way and sits in front of a new chair's first dot plot, unlikely to be more favorable in two weeks than it is today.

Private Credit — Direct Lending First-Lien Holds at SOFR+550–600 (9.12%–9.62% All-In) With the Floating-Rate Layer Pinned to an Unchanged Funds Rate, While the Belly's Durable ~19 bp Relief Keeps Fixed-Rate and Swap Alternatives at the Most Attractive Entry of the Quarter; Q1 Originations Marked ~25 bps Wider Than the Quarter-End Print Per Northleaf, With Q1 Volumes at a One-Year Low Sharpening the Bid for Quality; the Stabilized Crude Band Near $93 Keeps Sponsor-Backed Energy Marks Under Modest Pressure Into Q2 Quarter-End; Q2 BDC Redemption Pressure Stays Elevated — Apollo Honored 5% of 11.2% Requested in Q1, Ares 5% of 11.6%, BCRED Met 7.9% in Full via a 7% Cap and $400M GP Capital; Rowan's 5% Quarterly Threshold Is Now the Market-Wide Minimum Competence Standard; ~$600B Institutional Dry Powder and a Record Direct-Lending Cash Pile Offset Semi-Liquid Outflows; Counterparty Selection Remains the Dominant Variable Over Headline-Quote Comparison

Direct lending first-lien spreads continue to sit at the wider end of the post-COVID range — SOFR+550–600 in headline pricing, with new originations marking approximately 25 basis points wider than the Q1 quarter-end print per Northleaf's published Q1 2026 update, accompanied by higher original issue discounts on individual transactions. Q1 direct lending deployment volume sank to a one-year low, with deal volumes reported well below the January baseline, sharpening the supply-side bid for the quality credits that do come to market. With overnight SOFR anchored at 3.62% and the funds rate unchanged, the floating-rate first-lien layer is itself unchanged — all-in pricing remains 9.12%–9.62% with unitranche at 9.62%–10.12%, because the SOFR base is pinned to a policy rate the crude move does not touch. What the belly's durable relief does change is the fixed-rate and swap alternative: with the 5-year at 4.181% and the 10-year at 4.473%, both holding roughly 19 basis points inside the mid-May 4.667% high, swap economics on a fixed or hedged tranche sit at the most attractive entry of the quarter and have held there across several sessions rather than flickering with a single crude print. The point worth flagging is durability: borrowers carrying a fixed-rate or swapped tranche have a relief window that has proven it can persist, and the question is whether to lock it before the next Strait headline rebuilds the term premium or Warsh's first SEP resets the long end. The wide floating spreads reflect liquidity bifurcation rather than systemic credit deterioration, but the credit picture is not uniformly clean: industry coverage notes upper-middle-market default rates rising, and several large nontraded BDCs continue to operate at or near their quarterly redemption caps with proration spilling into Q2. Crude holding in the low $90s keeps the sponsor-backed energy mark under modest pressure into Q2 quarter-end — portfolios concentrated in upstream and oilfield-services credits carry softer near-term marks than at the spike highs, while cost-exposed names get relief — and either way that mark uncertainty transmits into advisor-driven redemption math at the LP layer.

Q1 2026 BDC data quantifies the redemption dynamic. Apollo Debt Solutions received redemption requests equal to 11.2% of shares outstanding and capped honored redemptions at the 5% documented quarterly limit. Ares Strategic Income Fund received 11.6% in requests and also held the line at 5%. Blackstone's BCRED received 7.9% and met them in full only by lifting its quarterly cap from 5% to 7% and deploying an additional $400 million of GP capital alongside employee co-investment. Blue Owl's nontraded BDCs ran materially hotter, with requests well above any sustainable redemption posture. Published Q2 forecasts have redemption requests stepping up further — into the mid-teens for Apollo Debt Solutions and Ares Strategic Income Fund and above the Q1 level for BCRED — with the mechanical driver being advisor over-requesting in response to Q1 prorations, as clients who received only partial fills file larger Q2 requests to recover the unmet balance. Elevated redemptions are expected to persist into the second half before normalizing, though all major nontraded BDCs are projected to run above the 5% quarterly threshold for the remainder of 2026. Apollo's Marc Rowan has stated bluntly that any private credit lender unable to meet a 5% quarterly redemption is structurally mispositioned — a benchmark the market has effectively adopted as a minimum competence threshold rather than a competitive differentiator. The relevance for a borrower is direct: a quote from a manager managing through Q2 gates is not equivalent to a commitment from a platform funding off permanent institutional capital, regardless of the headline spread.

Underneath the BDC noise, institutional demand for private credit is accelerating precisely because spreads have widened. Large LPs continue to increase allocations, roughly $600 billion of institutional dry powder remains committed but undeployed — about half dedicated to direct lending — and U.S. direct lending dry powder hit a record level at year-end 2025. Asset yields on directly originated first-lien loans are projected to trough in the 8.0%–8.5% range across 2026, leaving today's 9.12%–9.62% prints comfortably above expected trough levels with underwriters disciplined on structure. Top-tier platforms — Ares Management, Apollo Credit, Blackstone Credit, Blue Owl, and KKR Credit — continue to execute with 30–45 day closing timelines on favored credits in domestically-oriented healthcare services, B2B professional services, essential industrial services, and software with positive free cash flow. Mid-tier managers operating below deployment mandates due to retail-vehicle redemption pressure may quote inside top-tier pricing on a headline basis, but execution certainty differs materially. The 350–400 basis point all-in spread premium that direct lending commands over regional bank term pricing — approximately $700,000–$800,000 annually on a $20 million facility — requires disciplined counterparty analysis as a precondition, not an afterthought, before private credit is selected over a relationship-bank execution. Every basis point of long-end repricing through Warsh's June 16-17 FOMC and first SEP transmits more cleanly into private credit spread floors than into relationship-bank committee economics, where carry from existing core deposits cushions the funding-side adjustment. The belly's durable relief — the 5- and 10-year both holding roughly 19 basis points inside the mid-May high as the energy premium settled — keeps swap economics on a $20 million seven-year facility at their best level of the quarter; the relief is real and has persisted across sessions, but it remains contingent, and the next Strait headline or a hawkish first dot plot can take it back. The operative point is unchanged: counterparty diligence on Q2 redemption performance, GP-capital backstops, and energy-sector mark exposure should be the gating workstream this week, and any borrower contemplating a fixed-rate or swapped tranche should treat this as the most attractive — and most finite — window of the quarter to lock.

What Borrowers Should Be Doing Right Now

As of this morning, the 10-year Treasury is trading at 4.473% (up 0.45% / +2 basis points on the session), the S&P 500 is at 7,584.31 (up 0.41% / +30.63 overnight), and WTI crude is at $92.91 per barrel — steady in the low-$90s band that has held since last week's sell-off. The 5-year sits at 4.181% (up 0.34% / +1 basis point), Brent is at $95.01, and overnight SOFR is anchored at approximately 3.62% against a federal funds target range of 3.50%–3.75% and a 6.75% prime rate. Equities traded firm and breadth-led: the Dow Jones Industrial Average led at 51,561.93 (+1.73% / +874.86), the S&P advanced, and the NASDAQ Composite lagged at 26,830.96 (-0.09% / -23.02) — a rotation tape favoring cyclicals over mega-cap growth. The operative signal this morning is durability: the energy premium that drove the curve all quarter has settled into a lower band rather than reasserting itself, and the belly has held the bulk of its relief across several sessions, with the 10-year and 5-year both roughly 19 basis points inside the mid-May 4.667% 16-month high. The inflation backdrop itself is not soft — energy costs remain elevated and the core trend sits above the Fed's 2% target — but with crude no longer climbing, CME FedWatch keeps the year-end cut path alive: the June 16-17 meeting prices near 70% hold, with roughly 60–65% odds of a single 25-basis-point cut by year-end, most likely September or October. Kevin Warsh took the chair on May 22 following the May 13 54-45 Senate confirmation, the narrowest margin in modern Fed history; his first FOMC is June 16-17, 2026, accompanied by the next Summary of Economic Projections, and the long end will reprice off that dot plot regardless of where the funds rate itself prints. The operative conclusion for middle-market C&I borrowers is that rate-lock and swap economics on new term debt sit roughly 19 basis points better than the mid-May high and have proven durable across multiple sessions — but that edge is geopolitically contingent and sits in front of a new chair's first dot plot, so the cleanest execution window of the quarter is open now and finite, with roughly 7 trading sessions before the meeting.

This is the right moment to finalize submission packaging and lock economics — not on a bet that yields fall further, but because the configuration on offer this morning is the most borrower-friendly of the quarter and rests on a crude band that can break either way. The relief is real and has held: roughly 19 basis points inside the mid-May 4.667% high, available because the energy premium settled rather than spiked, and a single fresh Strait headline can rebuild it. The $92.91 WTI print is the operative spot reference, and the energy-credit underwriting frame must bracket two-way commodity volatility rather than extrapolate the current band. For cost-exposed businesses — food manufacturing, commercial distribution, transportation and logistics, import-dependent manufacturers — the stabilized low-$90s tape is margin-supportive, but the $110–$115 Brent sensitivity case still belongs in the file because the same Strait dynamics that unwound the premium can rebuild it. For upstream and midstream energy operators the band cuts the other way: crude holding below $95 keeps near-term margins and marks under modest pressure, so the energy-credit scenario set must span an explicit $80–$85 WTI downside, with hedge-book documentation and break-even cost curves the gating diligence items for any new energy submission this week. For any credit operating within 15%–20% of a financial covenant threshold, the case for proactive lender dialogue this week — while roughly 19 basis points of curve relief survives inside the 16-month high and ahead of Warsh's first FOMC repricing — has strengthened: a covenant amendment originated from a position of strength prices materially better than one negotiated under stress. Tariff cost-pass-through documentation remains additive to commodity diligence and must be addressed independently for any import-dependent cost structure, regardless of energy-price direction.

For businesses pursuing new capital in Q2 2026 — acquisition financing, equipment term loans, working capital expansion, or refinancing — the regional bank channel retains a materially strengthened position relative to direct lending. Three concrete actions are appropriate this week. First, circulate term-sheet RFPs to two or three relationship banks now, while the energy-led curve relief is in hand and well ahead of the FOMC: PNC is tracking 12–13% loan growth with CRE returning across its $328 billion portfolio; KeyCorp posted Q1 EPS of $0.44 (+33% YoY) on revenue of $1.95 billion (+10.2% YoY); Citizens is publicly targeting roughly 30% earnings growth for 2026; Associated Banc-Corp grew C&I balances to $12.3 billion (+4.6% QoQ / +12.9% YoY) and lifted full-year loan guidance to 17–19%; Flagstar added $1.4 billion of C&I balances (+9% QoQ) on broad-based industry growth; Regions called out broad-based origination across power and utilities, manufacturing, healthcare, and ABL with half of growth from rising line utilization; First Business Financial Services grew loans at roughly a 15% annualized pace with the C&I yield near 8.5%. For qualified credits (leverage at or below 3.5x EBITDA, FCCR at or above 1.25x), pricing clears at SOFR+200–250 (5.62%–6.12% all-in) against direct lending first-lien at SOFR+550–600 (9.12%–9.62% all-in) and unitranche at SOFR+600–650 (9.62%–10.12% all-in) — a 350–400 basis point all-in differential equal to approximately $700,000–$800,000 annually on a $20 million facility. Second, finalize the non-negotiable documentation baseline for any Q2 submission this week: three years of audited financial statements, leverage at or below 3.5x EBITDA, FCCR at or above 1.25x, a quantified tariff exposure analysis, and a commodity scenario range that brackets an $80–$85 WTI downside for upstream/midstream and a $110–$115 Brent upside for cost-exposed industries — both directions, not one. Third, if direct lending is the route, screen counterparties on documented Q1 redemption performance, GP-capital backstops, energy-sector mark exposure, and institutional funding share — not just headline spread — given the elevated Q2 redemption peak forecast across Apollo Debt Solutions, Ares Strategic Income Fund, and BCRED. With the 10-year at 4.473% — roughly 19 basis points below the mid-May 16-month high of 4.667% and holding its relief — FedWatch pricing the June meeting near 70% hold with roughly 60–65% odds of one cut by year-end, and Warsh's first FOMC roughly 7 sessions out on June 16-17, the cleanest tactical entry of the quarter is open today. A 30-day delay on a $20 million facility carries roughly $95,000 in interest at today's ~5.75% all-in bank pricing, and the relief that makes this morning's economics attractive is geopolitically contingent: it rests on a stabilized crude band that a single Strait headline can break, and it compresses once the new chair's first SEP resets the long-end framework in mid-June. The window that matters is open now — an energy tape that has stopped working against borrowers, curve relief in hand, and banks still competing hard for quality — but it rests on a contingent band and a fixed calendar, so it should be treated as finite.

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